Amid the global focus on the U.S. Presidential election, COP29 quietly brought limited yet critical developments for climate action, with implications for adaptation and agriculture. Hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, this year’s conference convened as usual governments, businesses, and civil society to advance global climate goals. Finres Chief Scientist, Prof. Michiel Schaeffer, participated in the discussions.
Here are three key insights that highlight the urgency of addressing agriculture’s role in climate adaptation.
1. The new finance goal will only be met if investment in adaptation from the private sector is scaled up
The focus of each COP changes every year. COP29 was dubbed “the finance COP” because governments were agreeing on a new target for finance to climate vulnerable countries. This “New Collective Quantified Goal” (often abbreviated to NCQG) was the major outcome from the summit. It will guide future public funding, development assistance, as well as the regulatory environment reforms necessary to meet the new target. In the face of objections from some developing countries, a new goal was agreed: rich governments “taking the lead” to provide USD 300 billion annually by 2035 of climate finance to developing countries, and US$1.3 trillion of climate finance to developing countries by 2035 from “all sources”, including private and public capital.
Details relating to these targets were left deliberately vague. There are no sub-targets for issues like food systems or adaptation. But one thing is very clear: the goal will only be achieved if investment in adaptation from the private sector is scaled up. The latest data from the OECD released shows that adaptation finance makes up 30% of the total provided to developing countries, with the private sector contributing only a tenth of adaptation finance, totalling 3% of total climate finance provided to developing countries. With governments in many rich countries already looking to cut budgets, policymakers are looking to the private sector to provide the extra investment needed. In official submissions, 94% of countries identified agriculture as a priority for climate change adaptation. Investment in adaptation for agriculture will be central to the growth in adaptation finance. For this to happen, financial institutions and farmers will need the data and insights into the risks and opportunities associated with different adaptation investments.
2. Hard work still ahead to develop indicators for adaptation, including on agriculture, for the Global Goal on Adaptation
One of the outcomes of the last COP held in Dubai was a “Global Goal on Adaptation”. As part of a two-year work program initiated at COP28, governments have since been trying to add more detail, including indicators relating to the targets. This includes how to measure the target relating to food and agriculture: “attaining climate-resilient food and agricultural production and supply and distribution of food, as well as increasing sustainable and regenerative production and equitable access to adequate food and nutrition for all. “
Mid-way during that two-year program, disagreements in Baku about whether to include specific provisions relating to financing adaptation held up progress on indicators. These discussions will now have to continue at the so-called ‘Pre-COP’ held in Bonn in June, and hopefully adopted at COP30 to be held in Belém, Brazil at the end of 2025. These indicators are pivotal because they will shape how policies are reformed, investments structured and progress measured.
3. COP30 was always going to be important – it is even more so now
The next COP was always going to be important. All governments signed up to the Paris Agreement will review the new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) completed in 2025. NDCs are the commitments made by each country and act as high-level roadmaps for national climate action. Risks to food security and agrifood systems were already the most cited climate risk included in the last set of NDCs. Brazil’s role as host of COP30 in 2025 makes this event especially significant for agriculture. The government of President Lula da Silva will look to build on its Presidency of the G20 group of countries this year in which they have made food security, tackling hunger, and helping smallholder farmers a priority.
As an agricultural powerhouse, Brazil’s Presidency of COP30 will have a strong, perhaps predominant, focus on agriculture and the need to support farmers adapt to the changing climate. Research from finres currently undergoing academic peer review shows the vulnerability of key crops to changing climatic conditions, including economically important crops such as coffee in countries like Brazil. The decisions taken in Belém have the potential to meet the challenge and support farmers around the world to strengthen their resilience to produce the food we all rely on.
Why This Matters
The discussions at COP29 and the roadmap leading to COP30 underscore the growing importance of adaptation in agriculture as part of the global climate agenda. As climate risks intensify, it is critical for farmers and stakeholders across agriculture to collaborate in developing data-driven solutions. Finres is committed to driving this dialogue and bridging the gap between the latest science and the investments needed to strengthen the sector’s resilience
If you would like to learn more or partner with us as we provide relevant data and insights on these issues, please get in touch.