By Florent Baarsch, CEO and Founder, finres
This month, finres celebrated our fifth birthday: five years of using the latest AI and science to bridge the financing gap and make agriculture more resilient to mounting global disorders. Along the way, we’ve worked with farmers, cooperatives, development institutions, banks, and governments to answer a critical question: How will global disorders, including climate hazards, shape the future of farming, and what can we do about it?
To mark this milestone, I want to share five insights we’ve learned about agriculture, climate, and adaptation—insights that combine what we’ve seen on the ground with what science tells us about tomorrow.
1. The negative consequences of climate-related disasters are increasingly being felt, worldwide
The effects of climate hazards on agriculture are unfolding now, in front of our eyes. From the heatwaves in Eastern Europe to prolonged droughts in Africa, climate hazards are reshaping the sector around the world. Globally, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports that over the past three decades, disasters have led to nearly $4 trillion in crop and livestock production losses, averaging about $123 billion per year.
The impact of the increased variability of the weather was highlighted in our recent research paper The new normal: French agriculture in an era of climate extremes. The paper profiled the example of historically low yields in France this year which resulted from excessive rainfall. Coming so soon after a damaging drought in 2020, the research highlights the value of understanding the new still changing climate we are now experiencing.
2. Adaptation measures are increasingly recognised as an attractive investment
At finres, we have worked in over 30 countries, informing $1.4 billion of investments that strengthen the resilience of agriculture. We’ve seen how the conversation about adaptation investments is expanding. It’s not just farmers who are increasingly interested; it’s cooperatives, food manufacturers, banks and insurers, and policymakers.
For example, this year we supported the Africa Rural Climate Adaptation Finance Mechanism (ARCAFIM), a US$200 million program launched by the United Na
tions International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) to catalyse private sector investment. Working with the largest banks in Eastern and Southern Africa, finres produced a detailed taxonomy of adaptation farming technologies. Categorized by crop, climate zone and country, the taxonomy also included risk and return profiles of each resilience measure, and geo-located these insights so the banks’ operational branches could reduce their exposure to climate stressors and expand their loan books with adaptation investments.
3. Artificial Intelligence has accelerated climate and agricultural modeling
One of the most exciting developments in the past five years is the progress in climate and agricultural modeling, which is now being accelerated further through Artificial Intelligence. Today, leveraging the models trained with large datasets and sophisticated machine and deep learning approaches, we can be more confident than ever about how a specific crop in a specific location will respond to climate conditions.
At finres, we incorporate the latest AI and science into our algorithms. For example, we are using innovative models utilising satellite imagery to provide more accurate predictions of the climate impacts on agriculture at very fine resolution and the most effective adaptation options. The models we have developed use vegetation indices derived from spectral images to track crops through their growth cycle and develop a detailed understanding of how the health of the plant is affected by the climate and soil in that location. The accuracy of the models are outstanding especially at such resolution.
4. Turning data into actionable information is critical
Terabytes of climate and agronomic data are being produced all the time. The challenge facing us is analysing this to create relevant and actionable information. At the risk of being too literal: what decision will the data inform? Science often produces results that are inaccessible or abstract. But for a farmer, cooperative, or lender to act, they need relevant information to inform their investments.
This is why we launched the free version of AgHorizon, to demonstrate and work with farmers on how to turn cutting-edge data into clear, actionable insights. How often can they expect a repeat of the wet conditions seen this year in France? What are the most cost-effective adaptation measures they can implement knowing the evolution of the climate? These are the questions we answer, and we’re working on more tools to provide the information needed to underpin the investments to make agriculture more resilient.
5. Focusing on the risks misses the bigger story: there’s immense potential in the future of farming.
It is easy to become despondent about climate change. There is still so much to do to meet the emission reduction targets that science tells us are necessary to protect the planet. Thetransition to a net-zero world will require huge shifts in so many sectors of our societies, not just agriculture. This is why banks are increasingly being mandated to disclose their climate risks.
But farmers are among the most resilient and innovative people you will ever meet. Our work over the past five years has shown a far more hopeful story: adaptation works. Whether it’s half-moon water harvesting techniques in Senegal or innovative desert agriculture in MENA, when farmers adapt, they can succeed. Adaptation solutions exist, but to be cost-effective they must be tailored, localized, and forward-looking. This is what drives us at finres.
Farming will always be essential to feed the world. But the future of farming amidst mounting global disorders should not just be seen as risk mitigation—it’s about innovation, opportunity, and resilience. Farmers are not just victims of these changes; they are its frontline innovators.
Looking Ahead
Five years in, I’m proud of what we’ve built at finres and the incredible partners we’ve worked with. But we know this is just the beginning. The coming years will require collaboration, innovation, and bold investments to ensure agriculture thrives in a changing climate.
To everyone we’ve worked with so far—thank you for being part of this journey. To those exploring to build a more resilient agricultural sector, let’s talk. There’s so much to build together.